A newly discovered asteroid that has caught the attention of the astronomy community now has a slightly increased risk of hitting Earth.
Called 2024 YR4, the asteroid has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to the European Space Agency.
The risk assessment has increased from a 1.2% chance over the past week due to new observations. Astronomers expect the percentage to evolve as more observations are made.
If this asteroid follows the pattern of other near-Earth asteroids after their discovery, the chances of an impact will increase and then decrease, according to the agency.
For example, the asteroid Apophis was once considered one of the most dangerous asteroids, with the potential to hit Earth after its discovery in 2004. In 2021, scientists revised their prediction after a more precise analysis of the asteroid’s orbit.
The more astronomers can observe asteroid 2024 YR4, the more opportunities they will have to refine their understanding of its size and trajectory, which will determine the likelihood of a collision.
“Basically, the more observations we get, the more we can locate and confirm the asteroid’s trajectory, which will most likely turn out to be a flyby rather than an impact,” according to a post shared by the agency.
“Therefore, we expect that the hazard estimate can be steadily reduced, step by step, to zero.”
The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters wide.
The space rock has a “size range comparable to that of a large building,” said Dr. Paul Chodas, manager for the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, or CNEOS, at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
Chodas added that the asteroid’s size, which astronomers are trying to determine with follow-up observations using multiple telescopes, is currently very uncertain.
