A recent study projects that extreme temperatures, particularly heat, could lead to up to 2.3 million fatalities in Europe by the century’s end if nations fail to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to rising temperatures. Published in the journal Nature Medicine, the research indicates that Mediterranean countries will likely face the highest rates of heat-related deaths.
Cities across the Mediterranean region are experiencing increasingly oppressive summers, and this discomfort poses serious health risks. Researchers warn that without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and adaptations—such as constructing air-conditioned facilities—countries like Italy, southern Spain, and Greece could witness a dramatic spike in fatalities attributable to climate change.
In contrast, most Scandinavian nations and the United Kingdom are expected to experience fewer heat-related deaths, primarily due to their milder winter temperatures, according to the study conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).
While cold temperatures currently cause more deaths in Europe than heat, the study’s findings from climate simulations across 854 cities indicate this trend will shift as the climate continues to warm. The data reveal that as temperatures rise, fatalities from cold weather are expected to decline gradually, whereas deaths from heat could surge to 2.3 million by century’s end.
Lead author Pierre Masselot, a researcher in applied statistics at LSHTM, explains, “Some countries are projected to experience a slight reduction in overall deaths in the future, particularly the northern countries like Ireland, the UK, and Scandinavian nations. However, these nations represent only a small fraction of Europe’s population, while southern regions are likely to see a significant increase. Eastern Spain, southern France, Italy, Greece, and the Balkans are expected to face notably higher rates of heat-related mortality.”
Southern Europe is anticipated to undergo more severe temperature fluctuations than other global regions. “The Mediterranean is classified as a climate change hotspot, warming at a much faster rate than the rest of the world,” says Mr. Masselot.
The research team employed climate simulations to estimate death rates in 854 cities, revealing that, while cold-related fatalities are expected to decline gradually, heat-related deaths will escalate sharply.
The researchers emphasize that Western Europe, being wealthier, may be better equipped to handle these challenges than eastern regions. Major urban centers near the Mediterranean could see a significant rise in deaths throughout the century, especially if emissions are not curtailed and adaptations are not made.
To account for Europe’s aging population and cities with older, less-effective insulation against heat, the researchers recommend measures such as constructing air-conditioned buildings and establishing cooling centers in urban areas.
“This study can aid politicians and policymakers in understanding potential outcomes should they choose not to take action,” says Mr. Masselot.
Additionally, the research team has launched an interactive website providing data for individual cities and highlighting various factors that may influence heat-related mortality.
